Let’s Twist Again!!!……Mortgage Rates Are At All Time Lows!!…But Will It Last??

The Fed released its statement Wednesday afternoon, and mortgage rates dropped to historical lows soon afterwards.

First, quite simply, the Fed confirmed that there are “significant downside risks” to the US economic outlook. Slower economic growth reduces the chances of inflation, which is good for mortgage-backed securities and Treasury bonds. Also, when economic growth is slow, investors tend to sell growth driven investments like stocks and buy safer investments like mortgaged-backed securities and Treasury bonds. When people buy more bonds, the price of the bonds goes up and the rates go down (Trust me, its bond math!). Because almost all mortgages are funded by mortgage-backed securities, lower rates on mortgage-backed securities lead to lower mortgage rates.

Second, the Fed announced the widely expected Operation Twist program. This program will extend the average maturity of the Fed’s portfolio by purchasing $400 billion of longer-term Treasury securities and selling an equal amount of shorter-term Treasuries. What this does is create extra demand for longer-term Treasury bonds. More demand equals prices going up for Treasury bonds which means that the rates on Treasury bonds goes down. Because mortgage-backed securities are priced from Treasury securities, if Treasury rates go down, the rates on mortgage-backed securities goes down. Because mortgages are funded by mortgage-backed securities, when the rates on the bonds go down, the rates on mortgages go down.

This all sounds great but will it work? The Fed tried this measure in the 1960s with any great success. Economists are predicting that Operation Twist will have little impact on the economy. It may lower rates by 0.1% to 0.2%, but that is unlikely to help economic growth. On the other hand, this benefit was immediately priced into the market and rates dove on Thursday and Friday. In addition, this will help to keep rates low as the Fed begins to carry out this policy.

The third major element from the statement by the Fed was a surprise to investors and will actually have a wider impact on mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve owns a massive amount of mortgage-backed securities. These bonds are backed by thousands of mortgages that have monthly principal payments and prepay when there is a refinance of a mortgage. All these payments of principal by the mortgages underlying the mortgage-backed securities means that there are billions of dollars of principal coming from the mortgage-backed securities that will come back as cash to the Federal Reserve. The big news is that the Fed will begin to reinvest principal payments from its mortgage-backed securities holdings in more mortgage-backed securities. Until now, the Fed has been reinvesting the principal payments in Treasury securities.

With roughly $885 billion in mortgage-backed securities holdings in the Fed’s portfolio, these principal payments will be re-invested into a significant sum of mortgage-backed securities. Along with Operation Twist, this program will create a significant source of more demand for mortgage-backed securities. Just as I said before, more demand for mortgage-backed securities leads to higher prices and ultimately lower mortgage rates. The impact of the announcement was priced in very quickly in the mortgage-backed securities markets and ultimately into lower mortgage rates. Although the Fed has not yet begun to purchase securities under the new programs, investors have already factored in the expected impact of the added demand on mortgage-backed securities prices. Following prior Fed announcements about purchasing mortgage-backed securities, nearly all the benefit took place right away.

This is GREAT! We should see mortgage rates stay low for  some time!!! Now is a great time to refinance or get mortgage financing to buy a home. Rates should stay low for the rest of the year and into next year….MAYBE.

All of these factors are great for mortgage rates on a go forward basis. That being said, there is one reason that we cannot forget. By mid-November, banks and investors begin to look toward the end of the year. Investors want to clean up their books for the end of the year and will stop buying new securities. The people at investment firms start to enjoy the holidays and there are fewer people. This all leads to less buying of mortgage-backed securities. Likewise, banks do not want to lend much more money because they want to close all the loans in their pipeline by the end of the year. With missing staff on holiday, they need to close these loans with fewer people. How do banks limit the volumne of business that they have? They do not shut their doors, they just raise mortgage rates to drive new customers away!! This all leads to less demand for mortgage-backed securities and mortgages. Less demand means that prices fall and rates go up (bond math again!!).

We saw this happen last year when by the end of November rates had gone from record lows to up by 1%. People who were waiting to save 0.125% on a refinance, could not refinance at all. I cannot predict the future of rates (or I would not be here writing this!), but you cannot ignore the impact of the holidays on the mortgage market. If a refinance or home purchase is in your plans for 2011, now is the time to act so you do not miss out.

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/21/news/economy/federal_reserve_operation_twist/?cnn=yes

The HELOC is Back and Can Decrease Your Down Payment to About 10%…Just be Careful of the Floating Rate Risk!!!

In the past, you could use a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) to structure mortgage financing that served a number of borrower needs. Well, the HELOC is back! As described below, a HELOC can be used so that the borrower can take advantage of the low rates for Conforming Mortgages but still keep their Combined Loan to Value (CLTV) at 80%. With Jumbo rates near 5.50% and a payment of $5,252, the weighted average rate of 4.46% with its $3,327 payment is very attractive. Borrowers need to have enough money in the bank should the floating rate on the HELOC rise suddenly.

Purchase Price	925,000			% Financing
Conforming Mortgage	417,000	45.08%	LTV	56%
HELOC	323,000	80.00%	CLTV	44%
Total Financing	740,000			100%
		Index	Margin	Rate	Payment
Conforming Mortgage	417,000	N/A	N/A	4.25%	2,051
HELOC (Prime Index)	323,000	3.25%	1.49%	4.74%	1,276
Total Financing	740,000			4.46%	3,327

Here is another use of the HELOC. In this case, the borrower wants to avoid a Jumbo loan at 5.50% (payment of $3,407) and raise his CLTV to 89.99%. In this case, the 4.48% rate with a payment of $2,588 is very attractive, and the borrower is putting down almost $60,000 less than a traditional 80% Loan to Value (LTV) Jumbo loan.  Once again, this structure is not for everyone. It is a little safer because only 23% of the financing is floating, but you still need assets in case rates rise.

Purchase Price	600,000			% Financing
Conforming Mortgage	417,000	69.50%	LTV	77%
HELOC	122,950	89.99%	CLTV	23%
Total Financing	539,950			100%
		Index	Margin	Rate	Payment
Conforming Mortgage	417,000	N/A	N/A	4.25%	2,051
HELOC (Prime Index)	122,950	3.25%	1.99%	5.24%	537
Total Financing	539,950			4.48%	2,588

Many folks who have less than 20% for a down payment just dread the thought of mortgage insurance. Instead of using mortgage insurance to get to an 89.99% CLTV, you can get a Conforming Mortgage with a HELOC and avoid mortgage insurance. The structure below would have a payment of $1,312 at a weighted average rate of 4.36% compared to the $1,632 payment with a 4.25% rate and mortgage insurance. Although this financing is safer because only 11% of the financing is floating, you should still be comfortable with the risk of a floating rate HELOC.

Purchase Price	300,000			% Financing
Conforming Mortgage	240,000	80.00%	LTV	89%
HELOC	29,975	89.99%	CLTV	11%
Total Financing	269,975			100%
		Index	Margin	Rate	Payment
Conforming Mortgage	240,000	N/A	N/A	4.25%	1,181
HELOC (Prime Index)	29,975	3.25%	1.99%	5.24%	131
Total Financing	269,975			4.36%	1,312

Rates below are not market rates. They are used simply for presenting an example of how the structures could work. To fully understand the benefits of these structures, you need to consult a mortgage banker to get market rates and Annual Percentage Rates (APR).